Browsing by Author "Adesoye Idowu Abioye"

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A fractional-order mathematical model for malaria and COVID-19 co-infection dynamics
(Elsevier BV, 2023-12) Adesoye Idowu Abioye; Olumuyiwa James Peter; Hammed Abiodun Ogunseye; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola; Asimiyu Olalekan Oladapo
This study proposes a fractional-order mathematical model for malaria and COVID-19 co-infection using the Atangana–Baleanu Derivative. We explain the various stages of the diseases together in humans and mosquitoes, and we also establish the existence and uniqueness of the fractional order co-infection model solution using the fixed point theorem. We conduct the qualitative analysis along with an epidemic indicator, the basic reproduction number R0 of this model. We investigate the global stability at the disease and endemic free equilibrium of the malaria-only, COVID-19-only, and co-infection models. We run different simulations of the fractional-order co-infection model using a two-step Lagrange interpolation polynomial approximate method with the aid of the Maple software package. The results reveal that reducing the risk of malaria and COVID-19 by taking preventive measures will reduce the risk factor for getting COVID-19 after contracting malaria and will also reduce the risk factor for getting malaria after contracting COVID-19 even to the point of extinction.
Forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria using real statistical data
(SCIK Publishing Corporation, 2021) Adesoye Idowu Abioye; Mfon David Umoh; Olumuyiwa James Peter; Helen Olaronke Edogbanya; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Oshinubi Kayode; Sylvanus Amadiegwu
In this paper, we used data released by Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC) every 24 hours for the past consecutive two months to forecast the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases for the months (September – October 2020). The linear regression forecasting model and R software package are used for the forecast and simulations respectively. The COVID-19 cases in Nigeria is on a decreasing trend and the forecast result show that in the next two months, there is going to be a decrease in new COVID-19 cases in Nigeria. COVID-19 in Nigeria can be drastically reduced if the organizations, management, government or policymakers are constantly proactive concerning these research findings.
Fractional order of pneumococcal pneumonia infection model with Caputo Fabrizio operator
(Elsevier BV, 2021-10) Olumuyiwa James Peter; Abdullahi Yusuf; Kayode Oshinubi; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; John Oluwasegun Lawal; Adesoye Idowu Abioye; Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola
In this study, we present the Pneumococcal Pneumonia infection model using fractional order derivatives in the Caputo-Fabrizio sense. We use fixed-point theory to prove the existence of the solution and investigate the uniqueness of the model variables. The fractional Adams-Bashforth method is used to compute an iterative solution to the model. Finally, using the model parameter values to explain the importance of the arbitrary fractional order derivative, the numerical results are presented.
Mathematical model of COVID-19 in Nigeria with optimal control
(Elsevier BV, 2021-09) Adesoye Idowu Abioye; Olumuyiwa James Peter; Hammed Abiodun Ogunseye; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Kayode Oshinubi; Abdullahi Adinoyi Ibrahim; Ilyas Khan
The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a highly infectious disease caused by a new strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome of coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In this work, we proposed a mathematical model of COVID-19. We carried out the qualitative analysis along with an epidemic indicator which is the basic reproduction number () of this model, stability analysis of COVID-19 free equilibrium (CFE) and Endemic equilibrium (EE) using Lyaponuv function are considered. We extended the basic model into optimal control system by incorporating three control strategies. These are; use of face-mask and hand sanitizer along with social distancing; treatment of COVID-19 patients and active screening with testing and the third control is prevention against recurrence and reinfection of humans who have recovered from COVID-19. Daily data given by Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC) in Nigeria is used for simulation of the proposed COVID-19 model to see the effects of the control measures. The biological interpretation of this findings is that, COVID-19 can be effectively managed or eliminated in Nigeria if the control measures implemented are capable of taking or sustaining the basic reproductive number to a value below unity. If the three control strategies are well managed by the government namely; NCDC, Presidential Task Force (PTF) and Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) or policymakers, then COVID-19 in Nigeria will be eradicated.
Modeling the impact of control strategies on malaria and COVID-19 coinfection: insights and implications for integrated public health interventions
(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2023-12-27) Adesoye Idowu Abioye; Olumuyiwa James Peter; Emmanuel Addai; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola
This work discusses the challenge posed by the simultaneous occurrence of malaria and COVID-19 coinfection on global health systems. We propose a novel fractional order mathematical model malaria and COVID-19 coinfection. To assess the impact of control strategies on both diseases, we consider two control strategies which are, personal protection against mosquito bites ($$u_{1}(t)$$) and preventive measures for COVID-19 ($$u_{2}(t)$$). Numerical simulations demonstrate that consistent application of these measures leads to significant reductions in disease transmission. Using insecticide-treated nets and repellents during day and night effectively reduces malaria transmission, while implementing facial masks and hand hygiene controls COVID-19 spread. The most substantial impact is observed when both sets of protection measures are simultaneously adopted, highlighting the importance of integrated strategies. The study provides valuable insights into malaria and COVID-19 coinfection dynamics and emphasizes the impact of the control measures. of individual behavior and consistent adoption of personal protection measures to control both diseases. It underscores the need for integrated public health interventions to combat the dual burden of malaria and COVID-19, contributing to the development of targeted and efficient control measures.
Modelling and optimal control analysis of Lassa fever disease
(Elsevier BV, 2020) Olumuyiwa James Peter; Adesoye Idowu Abioye; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Titilayo Abimbola Owolabi; Michael Oyelami Ajisope; Abdullaziz Glabe Zakari; Timilehin Gideon Shaba
Lassa fever is a severe hemorrhagic viral infection whose agents belong to Mastomys natelensis. Generally, humans contract Lassa virus through exposure to food or household products that have been contaminated with the excreta of the infected rodents. Lassa fever is endemic in some West African countries including Nigeria. A basic model is proposed to examine the transmission of the disease. The proposed model is subjected to qualitative study via the theory of differential equations and the threshold quantity that denotes the dominant eigenvalue was derived using next-generation matrix approach. The basic model is further extended to an optimal control model with four controls namely, the fumigation of the environment with pesticide, the use of condom to prevent human to human transmission during sexual activities, early treatment and the use of indoor residual spray. The theory of optimal control was explored to establish the necessary conditions for curtailing the transmission of Lassa fever. Numerical simulation was conducted and the results showed that if the Lassa fever transmission and spread were to be reduced significantly in the endemic region, all the control measures must be taken with all seriousness.