Browsing by Author "Afeez Abidemi"

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    Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic with Double Dose Vaccination
    (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2023-03-06) Olumuyiwa James Peter; Hasan S. Panigoro; Afeez Abidemi; Mayowa M. Ojo; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu
    This paper is concerned with the formulation and analysis of an epidemic model of COVID-19 governed by an eight-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations, by taking into account the first dose and the second dose of vaccinated individuals in the population. The developed model is analyzed and the threshold quantity known as the control reproduction number is obtained. We investigate the equilibrium stability of the system, and the COVID-free equilibrium is said to be locally asymptotically stable when the control reproduction number is less than unity, and unstable otherwise. Using the least-squares method, the model is calibrated based on the cumulative number of COVID-19 reported cases and available information about the mass vaccine administration in Malaysia between the 24th of February 2021 and February 2022. Following the model fitting and estimation of the parameter values, a global sensitivity analysis was performed by using the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) to determine the most influential parameters on the threshold quantities. The result shows that the effective transmission rate, the rate of first vaccine dose, the second dose vaccination rate and the recovery rate due to the second dose of vaccination are the most influential of all the model parameters. We further investigate the impact of these parameters by performing a numerical simulation on the developed COVID-19 model. The result of the study shows that adhering to the preventive measures has a huge impact on reducing the spread of the disease in the population. Particularly, an increase in both the first and second dose vaccination rates reduces the number of infected individuals, thus reducing the disease burden in the population.
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    Optimizing tuberculosis control: a comprehensive simulation of integrated interventions using a mathematical model
    (Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications, 2024-09-30) Olumuyiwa James Peter; Afeez Abidemi; Fatmawati Fatmawati; Mayowa M. Ojo; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu
    Tuberculosis (TB) remains a formidable global health challenge, demanding effective control strategies to alleviate its burden. In this study, we introduce a comprehensive mathematical model to unravel the intricate dynamics of TB transmission and assess the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of diverse intervention strategies. Our model meticulously categorizes the total population into seven distinct compartments, encompassing susceptibility, vaccination, diagnosed infectious, undiagnosed infectious, hospitalized, and recovered individuals. Factors such as susceptible individual recruitment, the impact of vaccination, immunity loss, and the nuanced dynamics of transmission between compartments are considered. Notably, we compute the basic reproduction number, providing a quantitative measure of TB transmission potential. Through this comprehensive model, our study aims to offer valuable insights into optimal control measures for TB prevention and control, contributing to the ongoing global efforts to combat this pressing health challenge.