Browsing by Author "Ilyas Khan"

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    Fractional order mathematical model of monkeypox transmission dynamics
    (IOP Publishing, 2022-07-15) Olumuyiwa James Peter; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Mayowa M Ojo; Abdulmumin Olayinka Oyeniyi; Rashid Jan; Ilyas Khan
    In this paper, we present a deterministic mathematical model of monkeypox virus by using both classical and fractional-order differential equations. The model includes all of the possible interactions that contribute to disease spread in the population. We investigate the model's stability results in the disease-free case when R0 < 1. When R0 < 1, we show that the model is stable, otherwise it is unstable. To obtain the best fit that describes the dynamics of this disease in Nigeria, the model is fitted using the nonlinear least square method on cumulative reported cases of monkeypox virus from Nigeria between January to December 2019. Furthermore, adequate conditions for the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the model have been proved. We run numerous simulations of the proposed monkeypox model with varied input parameters to investigate the intricate dynamics of monkeypox infection under the effect of various system input parameters. We investigate the system's dynamical behavior to develop appropriate infection control policies. This allows the public to understand the significance of control parameters in the eradication of monkeypox in the population. Lowering the order of fractional derivatives has resulted in significant modifications. To the community's policymakers, we offered numerous parameters for the control of monkeypox.
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    Mathematical model of COVID-19 in Nigeria with optimal control
    (Elsevier BV, 2021-09) Adesoye Idowu Abioye; Olumuyiwa James Peter; Hammed Abiodun Ogunseye; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Kayode Oshinubi; Abdullahi Adinoyi Ibrahim; Ilyas Khan
    The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a highly infectious disease caused by a new strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome of coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In this work, we proposed a mathematical model of COVID-19. We carried out the qualitative analysis along with an epidemic indicator which is the basic reproduction number () of this model, stability analysis of COVID-19 free equilibrium (CFE) and Endemic equilibrium (EE) using Lyaponuv function are considered. We extended the basic model into optimal control system by incorporating three control strategies. These are; use of face-mask and hand sanitizer along with social distancing; treatment of COVID-19 patients and active screening with testing and the third control is prevention against recurrence and reinfection of humans who have recovered from COVID-19. Daily data given by Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC) in Nigeria is used for simulation of the proposed COVID-19 model to see the effects of the control measures. The biological interpretation of this findings is that, COVID-19 can be effectively managed or eliminated in Nigeria if the control measures implemented are capable of taking or sustaining the basic reproductive number to a value below unity. If the three control strategies are well managed by the government namely; NCDC, Presidential Task Force (PTF) and Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) or policymakers, then COVID-19 in Nigeria will be eradicated.