Mathematics

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Mathematics

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    SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR THE MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF MONKEY POX VIRUS INCORPORATING QUARANTINE AND PUBLIC ENLIGHTENMENT CAMPAIGN
    (FULafia Journal of Science & Technology, 2020-03-15) Somma, Samuel Abu
    In this paper sensitivity analysis was carried out for the mathematical modeling of Monkey pox virus incorporating quarantine and public enlightenment campaign into the human population. The model was formulated using first order ordinary differential equations. The model equation was divided into two populations of human and rodents. There are two equilibrium points that exist in the model; Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) and Endemic Equilibrium (EE). The Local and Global stabilities of Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) were R and rodent to rodent analyzed. The basic reproduction numbers of human to human 0h r R0 transmission was computed. The sensitivity analysis of the Basic reproduction number with the parameters was carried out. The Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) is Locally and Globally Asymptotically Stable if R 0 h < 1 and R 0 r < 1 . The graphical presentation of the Basic reproduction number and the sensitive parameters shows that effective progression rate from infected class to Quarantine and effective public enlightenment campaign are the most sensitive parameters that will eradicate the disease from the population.
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    Stability and Bifurcation Analysis of a Mathematical Modeling of Measles Incorporating Vitamin A Supplement
    (Sule Lamido University Journal of Science and Technology (SLUJST), 2021-01-20) Somma, Samul Abu; Akinwande, N. I.; Gana, P.; Ogwumu, O. D.; Ashezua, T. T.; Eguda, F. Y.
    Measles is transmissible disease that is common among children. The death caused by measles among children of five years and below is alarming in spite of the safe and effective vaccine. It has been discovered that Vitamin A Deficiency (VAD) in children increases their chances of measles infection. In this paper, the mathematical model of measles incorporating Vitamin A supplement as treatment was formulated and analyzed. The equilibrium points are obtained and analyzed for stability. Bifurcation and sensitivity analyses were carried out to gain further insight into the spread and control of measles. The stability analysis revealed that Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) is stable if Reproduction Number, 0 R 0  1 . The bifurcation analysis revealed forward bifurcation while the sensitivity analysis shows the most sensitive parameters of the model that are responsible for the spread and control of the diseases. The effect of sensitive parameters on Basic R were presented graphically. Vaccination, recovery and Vitamin A supplement rates have been shown from the graphical presentation as the important parameter that will eradicate the measles from the population while contact and loss of immunity rates have shown that measles will persist in the population. People should be sensitized on the danger of living with infected persons. Government should do more in routine immunization and administration of Vitamin A Supplement.