Industrial Mathematics

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Industrial Mathematics

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Author: search.filters.author.C. Y. Ishola

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    Derivation of the Reproduction Numbers for Cholera Model
    (Journal of the Nigerian Association of Mathematical Physcis (TNAMP), 2018-03) A. A. Ayoade; O. J. Peter; F. A. Oguntolu; C. Y. Ishola
    It is expected of the epidemiologists to predict whether a disease will spread in a community or not and at the same time, forecast the degree of severity of the disease if it spreads in the community. By that, a cholera model is formulated and the procedure for obtaining the effective reproduction number and the basic reproduction number of the model is presented following the Next Generational MAtrix approach. The two reproduction numbers (the effective reproduction number and the basic reproduction number) are successfully derived. While the effective reproduction number can be used to predict the effectiveness of intervention strategies in inhibiting the spread of cholera disease, the basic reproduction number can be used to forecast the severity of cholera spread in a community where the intervention strategies are not on ground.
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    Mathematical model for the control of infectious disease
    (African Journals Online (AJOL), 2018-05-03) O. J. Peter; O. B. Akinduko; F. A. Oguntolu; C. Y. Ishola
    We proposed a mathematical model of infectious disease dynamics. The model is a system of first order ordinary differential equations. The population is partitioned into three compartments of Susceptible S(t) , Infected I(t) and Recovered R(t). Two equilibria states exist: the disease-free equilibrium which is locally asymptotically stable if Ro < 1 and unstable if Ro > 1. Numerical simulation of the model shows that an increase in vaccination leads to low disease prevalence in a population.