Industrial Mathematics

Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://197.211.34.35:4000/handle/123456789/188

Industrial Mathematics

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Author: search.filters.author.Helen Olaronke EdogbanyaStart date: 2020

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    Stability and optimal control analysis of an SCIR epidemic model
    (SCIK Publishing Corporation, 2020-10-16) Olumuyiwa James Peter; Ratchada Viriyapong; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Pensiri Yosyingyong; Helen Olaronke Edogbanya; Michael Oyelami Ajisope
    In this paper, we proposed a deterministic model of SCIR governed by a system of nonlinear differential equations. Two equilibria (disease-free and endemic) are obtained and the basic reproduction number R0 is calculated. If R0 is less than one, then the disease-free equilibrium state is globally stable i.e. the disease will be eradicated eventually. However, when R0 is greater than unity, the disease persists and the endemic equilibrium point is globally stable. Furthermore, the optimal control problem is applied into the model. The focus of this study is to determine what control method can be implemented to significantly slow the incidence of the epidemic disease, therefore we take into account various possible combinations of such three controls which are prevention via proper hygiene, screening of the infected carriers which enable them to know their health conditions and to go for early treatment and treatment of the infected individuals. The possible strategies of using combinations of the three controls on the spread of the disease, one at a time or two at a time is also discussed. Our numerical analysis of the optimal approach suggests that the best method is to incorporate all three controls in order to control the disease epidemic.
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    Forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria using real statistical data
    (SCIK Publishing Corporation, 2021) Adesoye Idowu Abioye; Mfon David Umoh; Olumuyiwa James Peter; Helen Olaronke Edogbanya; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Oshinubi Kayode; Sylvanus Amadiegwu
    In this paper, we used data released by Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC) every 24 hours for the past consecutive two months to forecast the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases for the months (September – October 2020). The linear regression forecasting model and R software package are used for the forecast and simulations respectively. The COVID-19 cases in Nigeria is on a decreasing trend and the forecast result show that in the next two months, there is going to be a decrease in new COVID-19 cases in Nigeria. COVID-19 in Nigeria can be drastically reduced if the organizations, management, government or policymakers are constantly proactive concerning these research findings.
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    Direct and indirect transmission of typhoid fever model with optimal control
    (Elsevier BV, 2021-08) Olumuyiwa James Peter; Mohammed Olanrewaju Ibrahim; Helen Olaronke Edogbanya; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Kayode Oshinubi; Abdullahi Adinoyi Ibrahim; Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola; John Oluwasegun Lawal
    In this paper, a model for direct and indirect transmission dynamics of typhoid fever with three control interventions is analyzed. Optimal control strategies are proposed to minimize both the disease burden and the intervention cost. We proved the existence and uniqueness of optimal control paths and obtained these optimal paths analytically using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. We analyzed our results numerically to compare various strategies of proposed controls. It is observed that the implementation of the three controls among all strategies is most successful. Thus, we conclude that in order to reduce typhoid fever threat, all the three controls must be taken into consideration concurrently.