Industrial Mathematics
Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://197.211.34.35:4000/handle/123456789/188
Industrial Mathematics
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Item Stability Analysis of Rotavirus Model with Co-infection and Control Measures(Journal of Science, Technology, Mathematics and Education, 2021-06) R. O. Olayiwola; F. A. Kuta; F. A. Oguntolu; O. N. Emuoyibofarhe; F. T. OlayiwolaA mathematical model of the spread of rotavirus diarrhea based on a continuous time ordinary differential equation modeled two viral strains of influenza is presented. The existing influenza models is extended to include the case of co-infection when a single individual is infected with both strains of rotavirus and to explore the effects of maternal antibodies, vaccination and seasonality. The model exhibits two equilibria, disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and the endemic equilibrium (EE). Equilibrium analysis is conducted in the case with constant controls for both epidemic and endemic dynamics. By the use of Lyapunov function, it is shown that if the effective reproduction number, R0<1, the DFE is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case, the EE is unstable. Moreover, if R0 >1, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.Item A Mathematical Model Analysis of Meningitis with Treatment and Vaccination in Fractional Derivatives(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2022-04-26) Olumuyiwa James Peter; Abdullahi Yusuf; Mayowa M. Ojo; Sumit Kumar; Nitu Kumari; Festus Abiodun OguntoluIn this paper, we develop a new mathematical model based on the Atangana Baleanu Caputo (ABC) derivative to investigate meningitis dynamics. We explain why fractional calculus is useful for modeling real-world problems. The model contains all of the possible interactions that cause disease to spread in the population. We start with classical differential equations and extended them into fractional-order using ABC. Both local and global asymptotic stability conditions for meningitis-free and endemic equilibria are determined. It is shown that the model undergoes backward bifurcation, where the locally stable disease-free equilibrium coexists with an endemic equilibrium. We also find conditions under which the model’s disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. The approach of fractional order calculus is quite new for such a biological phenomenon. The effects of vaccination and treatment on transmission dynamics of meningitis are examined. These findings are based on various fractional parameter values and serve as a control parameter for identifying important disease-control techniques. Finally, the acquired results are graphically displayed to support our findings.Item Modeling the impact of control strategies on malaria and COVID-19 coinfection: insights and implications for integrated public health interventions(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2023-12-27) Adesoye Idowu Abioye; Olumuyiwa James Peter; Emmanuel Addai; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Tawakalt Abosede AyoolaThis work discusses the challenge posed by the simultaneous occurrence of malaria and COVID-19 coinfection on global health systems. We propose a novel fractional order mathematical model malaria and COVID-19 coinfection. To assess the impact of control strategies on both diseases, we consider two control strategies which are, personal protection against mosquito bites ($$u_{1}(t)$$) and preventive measures for COVID-19 ($$u_{2}(t)$$). Numerical simulations demonstrate that consistent application of these measures leads to significant reductions in disease transmission. Using insecticide-treated nets and repellents during day and night effectively reduces malaria transmission, while implementing facial masks and hand hygiene controls COVID-19 spread. The most substantial impact is observed when both sets of protection measures are simultaneously adopted, highlighting the importance of integrated strategies. The study provides valuable insights into malaria and COVID-19 coinfection dynamics and emphasizes the impact of the control measures. of individual behavior and consistent adoption of personal protection measures to control both diseases. It underscores the need for integrated public health interventions to combat the dual burden of malaria and COVID-19, contributing to the development of targeted and efficient control measures.Item A decomposition approach for magnetohydrodynamics stagnation point flow over an inclined shrinking/stretching sheet with suction/injection(International Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Modelling, 2023-09-27) A. Yusuf; G. Bolarin; F. A. Oguntolu; M. Jiya; Y. M. AiyesimiIn this paper, the approximate solution to Magnetohydrodynamics Stagnation Point Flow over an inclined Shrinking/Stretching Sheet with Suction/injection was analyzed via the Adomian Decomposition. The governing partial differential equations (PDEs) were reduced with the help of similarity variables to non linear coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The effects of various pertinent parameters were presented numerically and graphically. Numerical comparisons were carried out with the existing literature and a good agreement was established. The angle of inclination was found to enhance the velocity profile.Item A Mathematical Modelling of Lymphatic Filariasis and Malaria Co-infection(Abubakar Tafawa Balewa University, 2022-06-25) F. A. Oguntolu; D. W. Yavalah; C. F. Udom; T. A. Ayoola; A. A. VictorLymphatic Filariasis (LF) and Malaria continue to pose significant public health burden globally and are co-endemic in many sub-Saharan African regions. In this work, we developed and analyzed a mathematical model of Lymphatic filariasis and malaria co-infection model. Friedman and Lunge method was used to find the positivity of the solution, the disease-free equilibrium was obtained, the model stability was analyzed, and the basic reproductive number was also obtained. The findings suggest that with the use of a bed-net and insecticide as a control measure, the treatment of LF and malaria co-infection can be reduced to a minimum.Item Exploring the dynamics of lymphatic filariasis through a mathematical model and analysis with Holling type II treatment functions(Iranian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Optimization, 2025-06) F. A. Oguntolu; O. J. Peter; B. I. Omede; T. A. Ayoola; G. B. BalogunThis paper presents a robust deterministic mathematical model incorporat-ing Holling type II treatment functions to comprehensively investigate the dynamics of Lymphatic filariasis. Through qualitative analysis, the model demonstrates the occurrence of backward bifurcation when the basic re-production number is less than one. Moreover, numerical simulations are employed to illustrate and validate key analytical findings. These simula-tion results emphasize the significance of accessible medical resources and the efficacy of prophylactic drugs in eradicating Lymphatic filariasis. The findings show that, enhancing medical resource availability and implement-ing effective treatment strategies in rural areas and regions vulnerable to Lymphatic filariasis is crucial for combating the transmission and control of this disease.Item Forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria using real statistical data(SCIK Publishing Corporation, 2021) Adesoye Idowu Abioye; Mfon David Umoh; Olumuyiwa James Peter; Helen Olaronke Edogbanya; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Oshinubi Kayode; Sylvanus AmadiegwuIn this paper, we used data released by Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC) every 24 hours for the past consecutive two months to forecast the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases for the months (September – October 2020). The linear regression forecasting model and R software package are used for the forecast and simulations respectively. The COVID-19 cases in Nigeria is on a decreasing trend and the forecast result show that in the next two months, there is going to be a decrease in new COVID-19 cases in Nigeria. COVID-19 in Nigeria can be drastically reduced if the organizations, management, government or policymakers are constantly proactive concerning these research findings.Item Direct and indirect transmission of typhoid fever model with optimal control(Elsevier BV, 2021-08) Olumuyiwa James Peter; Mohammed Olanrewaju Ibrahim; Helen Olaronke Edogbanya; Festus Abiodun Oguntolu; Kayode Oshinubi; Abdullahi Adinoyi Ibrahim; Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola; John Oluwasegun LawalIn this paper, a model for direct and indirect transmission dynamics of typhoid fever with three control interventions is analyzed. Optimal control strategies are proposed to minimize both the disease burden and the intervention cost. We proved the existence and uniqueness of optimal control paths and obtained these optimal paths analytically using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. We analyzed our results numerically to compare various strategies of proposed controls. It is observed that the implementation of the three controls among all strategies is most successful. Thus, we conclude that in order to reduce typhoid fever threat, all the three controls must be taken into consideration concurrently.Item Modelling heat and mass transfer of a CO2 binary mixture: a mathematical approach. International Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Modelling(International Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Modelling, 2023-09-28) R. O. Olayiwola; A. T. Cole; M. D. Shehu; F. A. Oguntolu; E. E. Iyeme; A. W. AbubakarThis paper presents an analytical solutions for describing heat and mass transfer between a droplet of organic solvent and a compressed antisolvent taking into consideration the viscous energy dissipation and heat and mass transfer between the surface and the droplet by convection. The solvent and antisolvent are assumed to be fully miscible and have the same temperature. Both the initial temperature of the mixture and the initial carbon dioxide concentration are also assumed to depend on the space variable. The governing equations formulated based on the conservation of total mass, chemical species, momentum and energy were solved analytically using polynomial approximation method. The results obtained are presented graphically and discussed. The results revealed the effects of operating parameters on droplet lifetime. These results might be used for interpretation or experiments planning of the more complex real supercritical antisolvent process.Item Time-delayed modelling of the COVID-19 dynamics with a convex incidence rate(Elsevier BV, 2022) Oluwatosin Babasola; Oshinubi Kayode; Olumuyiwa James Peter; Faithful Chiagoziem Onwuegbuche; Festus Abiodun OguntoluCOVID-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented global health crisis which has an enormous impact on the world population and economy. Many scientists and researchers have combined efforts to develop an approach to tackle this crisis and as a result, researchers have developed several approaches for understanding the COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the way of mitigating its effect. The implementation of a mathematical model has proven helpful in further understanding the behaviour which has helped the policymaker in adopting the best policy necessary for reducing the spread. Most models are based on a system of equations which assume an instantaneous change in the transmission dynamics. However, it is believed that SARS-COV-2 have an incubation period before the tendency of transmission. Therefore, to capture the dynamics adequately, there would be a need for the inclusion of delay parameters which will account for the delay before an exposed individual could become infected. Hence, in this paper, we investigate the SEIR epidemic model with a convex incidence rate incorporated with a time delay. We first discussed the epidemic model as a form of a classical ordinary differential equation and then the inclusion of a delay to represent the period in which the susceptible and exposed individuals became infectious. Secondly, we identify the disease-free together with the endemic equilibrium state and examine their stability by adopting the delay differential equation stability theory. Thereafter, we carried out numerical simulations with suitable parameters choice to illustrate the theoretical result of the system and for a better understanding of the model dynamics. We also vary the length of the delay to illustrate the changes in the model as the delay parameters change which enables us to further gain an insight into the effect of the included delay in a dynamical system. The result confirms that the inclusion of delay destabilises the system and it forces the system to exhibit an oscillatory behaviour which leads to a periodic solution and it further helps us to gain more insight into the transmission dynamics of the disease and strategy to reduce the risk of infection.