Mathematics
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Item A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF YELLOW FEVER DISEASE DYNAMICS INCORPORATING SPECIAL SATURATION INTERACTIONS FUNCTIONS(1st SPS Biennial International Conference Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, 2017-05-05) Akinwande, N. I.; Abdulrahman, S.; Ashezua, T. T.; Somma, Samuel AbuWe proposed an Mathematical Model of Yellow Fever Disease Dynamics Incorporating Special Saturation Process functions, obtained the equilibrium states of the model equations and analyzed same for stability. Conditions for the elimination of the disease in the population are obtained as constraint inequalities on the parameters using the basic reproduction number 0 R demographic and epidemiological data. . Graphical simulations are presented using someItem Modelling the Impacts of Media Campaign and Double Dose Vaccination in Controlling COVID-19 in Nigeria.(Alexandria Engineering Journal, 2023-02-21) Akinwande, N. I.; Somma, Samuel Abu; Olayiwola, R. O.; Ashezua, T. T.; Gweryina, R. I.; Oguntolu, F. A.; Abdurahman, O. N.Corona virus disease (COVID-19) is a lethal disease that poses public health challenge in both developed and developing countries of the world. Owing to the recent ongoing clinical use of COVID-19 vaccines and noncompliance to COVID-19 health protocols, this study presents a deterministic model with an optimal control problem for assessing the community-level impact of media campaign and double-dose vaccination on the transmission and control of COVID-19. Detailed analysis of the model shows that, using the Lyapunov function theory and the theory of centre manifold, the dynamics of the model is determined essentially by the control reproduction number (𝑅𝑚𝑣). Consequently, the model undergoes the phenomenon of forward bifurcation in the absence of the double dose vaccination effects, where the global disease-free equilibrium is obtained whenever 𝑅𝑚𝑣 ≤ 1. Numerical simulations of the model using data relevant to the transmission dynamics of the disease in Nigeria, show that, certain values of the basic reproduction number ((𝑅0 ≥ 7)) may not prevent the spread of the pandemic even if 100% media compliance is achieved. Nevertheless, with assumed 75% (at 𝑅0 = 4)) media efficacy of double dose vaccination, the community herd immunity to the disease can be attained. Furthermore, Pontryagin’s maximum principle was used for the analysis of the optimized model by which necessary conditions for optimal controls were obtained. In addition, the optimal simulation results reveal that, for situations where the cost of implementing the controls (media campaign and double dose vaccination) considered in this study is low, allocating resources to media campaign-only strategy is more effective than allocating them to a firstdose vaccination strategy. More so, as expected, the combined media campaign-double dose vaccination strategy yields a higher population-level impact than the media campaign-only strategy, double-dose vaccination strategy or media campaign-first dose vaccination strategy.