School of Innovative Technology (SIT)
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School of Innovative Technology (SIT)
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Item THE DETERMINANTS OF DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN NIGERIA: A NEW EVIDENCE FROM NON-LINEAR AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (NARDL) MODEL(Economics and Management, 2020) Joseph David; Musa Abdullahi Sakanko; James ObilikwuThis study employs an extended Nonlinear ARDL cointegration approach to examine the determinants of domestic investment in Nigeria over the 1980-2018 period. The result from bound testing reveal the presence of cointegrating relationship between domestic investment and the included variables. The empirical evidence demonstrates that domestic investment in Nigeria is determined by inflation, real interest and exchange rate, government spending, electric power consumption, savings, per capita income, credit to private sector and the interaction between government spending and oil price in the short-run; and inflation, interest and exchange rate, government spending, internal conflict, savings, and interaction between oil price and government spending in the long-run. The results also suggest that the impact of increase in interest, inflation and exchange rate is statistically different from their decrease. In essence, this study recommends the increase in government capital expenditure, savings, diversification of the economy, reduction of lending interest rate, maintenance of investment-friendly inflation rate, and conflicts control.Item THE BEHAVIOUR OF TAX REVENUE AMID CORRUPTION IN NIGERIA: EVIDENCE FROM THE NON-LINEAR ARDL APPROACH(Economic Studies, 2022) Nurudeen Abu; Mohd Zaini Abd Karim; Joseph David; Musa Abdullahi Sakanko; Onyewuchi Amaechi Ben-Obi; Awadh Ahmed Mohammed GamalOne of Nigeria’s greatest challenges is the generation of adequate tax revenue to meet her rising expenditure, and the country has continued to contend with corruption, particularly in its public sector. We employ the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) technique to examine tax revenue behaviour amid corruption using Nigeria’s quarterly data over the 1999-2019 period. The result of the NARDL bounds test to cointegration demonstrates the presence of a long-run relationship between tax revenue and corruption along with income level, agriculture, inflation rate, foreign aid and female labour force participation. The results of estimation indicate the existence of asymmetry in tax revenue behaviour. We find evidence of a significant positive impact of negative changes in the control of corruption and a significant negative effect of positive changes in the control of corruption on tax revenue in the long run. Other long-run significant determinants of tax revenue in Nigeria include income level, foreign aid and female labour force participation. Based on these empirical outcomes, this study offers some recommendations.Item OIL PRICE AND PUBLIC EXPENDITURE RELATIONSHIP IN NIGERIA: DOES THE LEVEL OF CORRUPTION MATTER?(Economic Studies, 2022) Nurudeen Abu; Joseph David; Musa Abdullahi Sakanko; Ben-Obi Onyewuchi AmaechiWe employ the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to examine if the oil price and public expenditure relationship are dependent on the level of corruption using Nigeria’s quarterly data during the 1996-2019 period. The result of the NARDL-bounds test to co-integration demonstrates that there is a long-run relationship between the variables, and we found evidence of long-run asymmetry in this relationship. The estimation results indicate that both positive and negative shocks to oil price have a significant positive effect on public expenditure in the long run, and the impact of oil price on public expenditure depends on the level of corruption. In addition, the marginal effect of oil price on public expenditure varies at different levels of corruption. Other important factors that drive public expenditure in Nigeria, in the long run, include spending on internal security and debt service. Based on these outcomes, we proffer some policy recommendationsItem Long-term Impact of FDI-Corruption Interaction on Domestic Investment in Nigeria(Economic Alternatives, 2024) Nurudeen Abu; Ben Obi; Mohd Zaini Abd Karim; Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal; Musa Abdullahi Sakanko; Joseph DavidOver the past three decades, Nigeria has experienced unstable domestic investment and foreign direct investment inflows, and the country continues to face rising corruption and related problems. An ARDL technique has been adopted to explore the longterm FDI’s impact on domestic investment including evaluating if the FDI-domestic investment nexus is dependent on the control of corruption in Nigeria over this period. The bounds test result shows an evidence of a long-term relation amongst FDI, domestic investment and corruption control (including GDP per capita, lending rate, exchange rate and oil price). We find that increasing inward FDI reduces (crowd-out) domestic investment and greater corruption control (lowering corruption) leads to a higher domestic investment in Nigeria over the long-term. Also, the influence of FDI on domestic investment depends on (or varies with) the control of corruption. FDI crowd-in domestic investment at greater corruption control than at lesser corruption control in the long-term. Other significant long-term influencers of domestic investment are the exchange rate and oil price. Given these outcomes, the study offers some recommendations to boost domestic investment in Nigeria.Item Financial inclusion and underground economy nexus in West Africa: evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel techniques(Economic Change and Restructuring, 2024) Musa Abdullahi Sakanko; Joseph David; Nurudeen Abu; Awadh Ahmed Mohammed GamalDynamic Fixed Effects, Mean Group, and Pooled Mean Group estimators to explore the underground economy (UE) and financial inclusion (FI) relation for ten West African nations during the 2004–2021 period. Applying Pedroni cointegration test, the results present evidence of a long-term relation between UE and FI (alongside corruption, inflation rate, money supply, agricultural output, and trade). The results of panel estimation portray a long-term significant positive influence of FI on UE, but a short-term significant negative relation between FI and UE. In addition, corruption, money supply, and international trade have a long-term significant negative influence on UE, while inflation supports long-term expansion of UE. Also, a short-term significant negative relation exists between inflation (and trade) and UE, while a short-term significant positive relation is found between money supply and UE. The results of Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test signal a one-way causality from FI to UE. Therefore, policies geared toward enhancing FI, reducing corruption and money supply, and improving international trade are recommended to reduce UE.Item External Debt and Manufacturing Sector’s Performance in MINT Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Estimation Techniques(Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 2024) Nurudeen Abu; Joseph David; Musa Abdullahi SakankoThe study assesses external debt’s impact on MINT countries’ (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkiye) manufacturing sector’s performance during the 1980–2021 period, using dynamic heterogeneous panel methods (i.e. dynamic fixed effects, mean group, and pooled mean group estimators). The findings portray the presence of long-term relation between external debt and manufacturing performance (alongside external debt service, inflation rate, population size, exchange rate, FDI, and agricultural output) based on the Kao’s residual cointegration test. The empirical outcomes portray a dampening impact of external debt on manufacturing sector’s performance during the short and long term. Moreover, external debt servicing, FDI, population size, and inflation rate promote the sector’s performance, but exchange rate (depreciation) hurts manufacturing performance. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu- Hurlin heterogeneous panel causality test portrays a one-way causality from external debt servicing (and exchange rate) to manufacturing sector’s performance and a two-way causality between manufacturing sector and population (and FDI and agricultural output). Thus, policies aimed at lowering external debt, lessening exchange rate variability and inflation rate, and boosting inward FDI are recommended to promote the sector’s performanceItem Does Financial Inclusion Reduce Poverty in Niger State: Evidence from Logistic Regression Technique(Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, 2022-01-01) Nurudeen Abu; Musa Abdullahi Sakanko; Joseph David; Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal; Ben ObiThis study employs the logistic regression method to examine the effect of financial inclusion on the level of poverty in Niger State of Nigeria based on cross-sectional data randomly collected from 624 respondents across 224 towns and villages in 12 local government areas (LGAs) of the state. The estimation results illustrate that financial inclusion (proxied by bank account ownership, including access to bank, credit, and mobile phone) is significantly and negatively related to the level of poverty. This empirical outcome is further validated by the results of the Probit regression technique which show a significant negative relationship between financial inclusion and poverty in the state. Based on these empirical findings, the study recommends policies which include broadening bank coverage, softening credit requirements, and enhancement of people’s access to mobile phone and internet services in rural areas of Niger state.Item Advancing inclusive growth in Nigeria: the role of financial inclusion in poverty, inequality, household expenditure, and unemployment(Indonesian Journal of Islamic Economics Research, 2020) Musa Abdullahi Sakanko; Joseph David; Aliyu Musari OnimisiThis study employs ARDL bounds testing technique to examine the effect of financial inclusion on inclusive growth in Nigeria, using quarterly data from 2007-2018. The empirical evidence reveals the presence of cointegration between financial inclusion indicators (account ownership, access to bank, ATM and credit, loans to SMEs and internet usage) and inclusive growth (poverty, household expenditure, employment, and per capita income). The results demonstrate that, while increase in account ownership, and access to bank and ATM raise poverty, and access to credit, loans to SMEs and internet usage reduces employment and per capita income in the long-run, it was also discovered that access to credit reduce poverty and increase household consumption, while account ownership and access to bank increases employment and per capita income in the long-run. In the short-run: lag of account ownership, access to ATM and credit, loan to SMEs and internet usage reduces poverty; lag of household expenditure, account ownership, and access to ATM and lag of internet usage increases household expenditure; lags of access to ATM and lags of internet usage (and account ownership and access to the bank) increases employment opportunities (and per capita income), and access to ATM and credit reduces employment and per capita income respectively.